We all know tht numbers and statistics can be manipulated to say anthing. As a matter of fact, one time I read that 95% of statistics are made up on the spot…hmmm…wait a second?!

But seriously, I always look at statistics pessimistically as there are so many factors that go into facts, numbers, and responses. When looking at any graph I can break it down in numerous ways o either make an argument for the positive or negative. Often when I see housing market statistics I like to see what numbers they are comparing.

Honestly, many numbers compare year to year in real estate numbers…which is difficult in the current market situation as the market took a major turn during the past year. Sure, appreciation numbers may be stagnant compared to 12 months ago but that is more likely because during the first 6 months home values increased…and then during the past 6 months they have been decreasing…evening out at an equal point. If you break it down month by month though…even here in Seattle we are seeing prices decline.

Honestly, if I want to show that our market is doing well why not compare our prices to 10 years ago…we’d have a huge appreciation and everything would look great. How is it that we can simply base our facts on the previous year’s numbers.

But, another complication is month over month as the real estate market really changes based on seasons, weather, economy, holidays, etc. Of course the numbers for February are better than January…they always are because of the time of year! This simple fact does not mean that the market is turning around all in itself.

The main reason I am writing about this is because I have been working on a Bothell weekly update for our office and have been running lots of numbers. Here are the numbers I came up with:

Current
Active

Listings

Condos
– 78

Residential – 120

Currently Under

Contract

Condos – 19

Residential – 43

Sold in Past

60 Days

Condos – 18

Residential – 33

Average List Price

(sold last 60 days)

Condos - $283,934

Residential - $425, 965

Average Sold Price

(in last 60 days)

Condos - $284,399

Residential - $418,138

New listings in Last
Seven Days

Condos – 4

Residential – 9

Number sold in 2007
(same period)

Condos – 51

Residential – 70

Average 2007 Sold Price
(same period)

Condos – $266,041

Residential – $481,259

% Change from 2007
(same period)

Condos – +6.9%

Residential – -13%

Everyone likes seeing numbers…but according to these numbers single family homes have actually decreased in value 13% from last year in Bothell. However, his is simply not true. The fact is…the lower priced homes are what have sold and have maintained a fairly strong value. Unfortunately for higher priced homes…they have not been selling a well due in part to the mortgage market collapse.

But, depending on how I present these statistics I can either make our market look to be gloom and doom or still a solid market for the right homes.

I do believe it is a great market to buy in…not necessarily sell. But I still see homes come on the market that get swept up extremely quickly everyday.

Ultimately, don’t ever just simply make your decisions by the numbers. There is more to look into and make sure that you are well versed in all directions of the situations.

Make it a great week and stay out of the snow…sigh…in March.

(…)

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This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 7:35 am and is filed under Market Conditions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.